Japan Real Estate Data Report Q3 2026

Key points

• National prices: Tokyo's price per ㎡ of 108 in 2025 (10k JPY/㎡) is 2.6 times the median of all deals outside Tokyo. Five year gains of +50.5% in Osaka and +43.6% in Fukuoka stand up to Tokyo at +27.1%.
• Migration: only 7 prefectures gained Japanese residents on net in 2025. Foreign residents move inside Japan from Tokyo and Chiba toward Kanagawa and Saitama. Inflows to the 23 wards concentrate in the outer ring and are led by people aged 20 to 39, while residents aged 65 and over leave every ward except Adachi.
• Twenty years in Tokyo: twice the price. The transaction price index per ㎡ for the 23 wards stands at 210 (2005Q3 = 100), and half the rise came between 2013 and 2019.
• Center and outer ring: the two split after 2024Q3, and the transaction index reads 160 in the center and 132 in the outer ring (2021Q1 = 100).
• The 23 wards: in 2026Q1 the highest price per ㎡ is Minato at 200 (10k JPY/㎡), and the fastest annual gain is Arakawa at +26.0%.
• Flooding and ground: every flood depth band carries a discount, but only 3 meters and deeper is material (-11.6% to -15.3%, against -2.7% to -4.8% below 3 meters). High liquefaction risk prices at -13.9%, while slopes carry a premium.
• Population in 2040: it concentrates toward the center, Chuo +20.7%. Stations that are still growing and still cheap number 34.
• New supply: starts of condominiums built for sale total 26,794 units over the last 12 months, about 58% of the ten year peak, which supports resale prices from the supply side.
• Office buildings: whole building deals that include office use numbered 418 in 2025, with a median of 78 per gross floor ㎡ (10k JPY/㎡) against 32 in 2010, or 2.5 times.

Contents

1. 1The National Picture: Home Prices in 47 Prefectures
2. 2National Migration: Net Inflow by Prefecture
3. 3Twenty Years of Prices in the 23 Wards: Three Phases
4. 4The Price Split After 2024Q3: Central Five and Outer Five
5. 5The 23 Ward Scorecard: Price per ㎡ and YoY by Ward
6. 6The Discount for Building Age: Price per ㎡ by Age Band
7. 7Station Prices: The 15 Most Expensive and Walking Distance
8. 8Whole Building Office Deals: Prices and Deal Count
9. 9The New Supply Pipeline: Housing Starts in Tokyo
10. 10Flood and Ground Risk in Prices: The Discount Becomes Material Above 3 Meters
11. 112040 Station Populations: Stations Still Growing and Their Prices
12. 12Migration Inside the 23 Wards: Net Inflow by Ward and Age
13. 13Three Things for Overseas Investors
14. 14Method, Data and Limitations