Japan Real Estate Data Report Q3 2026

Key points

• National prices: Tokyo's price per ㎡ of 108 in 2025 (10k JPY/㎡) is 2.6 times the median of all deals outside Tokyo. Five year gains of +50.5% in Osaka and +43.6% in Fukuoka stand up to Tokyo at +27.1%.
• Migration: Tokyo draws young adults, while the three neighboring prefectures gain people of every age. Tokyo's net inflow of +65,219 in 2025 came entirely from people aged 20 to 39 (+76,617), and the other ages together left on net; Kanagawa, Saitama and Chiba also gained people aged 65 and over. Tokyo's population growth comes mainly from young adults, and rents are still rising. Only 7 prefectures gained Japanese residents on net (Tokyo, Kanagawa, Osaka, Chiba, Saitama, Fukuoka and Aichi). Within the 23 wards, the largest net inflows are in Adachi, Setagaya and Ota, and the largest net outflows in Shinjuku and Toshima.
• Twenty years in Tokyo: twice the price. The transaction price index per ㎡ for the 23 wards stands at 210 (2005Q3 = 100), and half the rise came between 2013 and 2019.
• Center and outer ring: the two split after 2024Q3, and the transaction index reads 160 in the center and 132 in the outer ring (2021Q1 = 100).
• The 23 wards: in 2026Q1 the highest price per ㎡ is Minato at 200 (10k JPY/㎡); on the same terms, prices rose in all 23 wards over four quarters, most in Chuo (+18.7%) and Minato (+18.5%) and least in Nerima (+6.5%).
• Flooding and ground: the discount is material at 3 meters and deeper (-11.6% to -15.3%, against -2.7% to -4.8% below 3 meters). High liquefaction risk prices at -13.9%.
• Population in 2040: it concentrates toward the center, Chuo +20.7%. Stations that are still growing and still cheap number 34.
• New supply: starts of condominiums built for sale in Tokyo (all structures including wood) total 19,459 units over the 12 months to August 2026, about 42% of the peak around 2015, which supports resale prices from the supply side.
• Office buildings: whole building deals that include office use in the 23 wards of Tokyo numbered 418 in 2025, with a median of 78 per gross floor ㎡ (10k JPY/㎡) against 32 in 2010, or 2.5 times.

Contents

1. 1The National Picture: Home Prices in 47 Prefectures
2. 2National Migration: Net Inflow by Prefecture
3. 3Twenty Years of Prices in the 23 Wards: Three Phases
4. 4The Price Split After 2024Q3: Central Five and Outer Five
5. 5The 23 Ward Scorecard: Price per ㎡ and YoY by Ward
6. 6The Discount for Building Age: Price per ㎡ by Age Band
7. 7Station Prices: The 15 Most Expensive and Walking Distance
8. 8Whole Building Office Deals: Prices and Deal Count
9. 9New Supply: Housing Starts in Tokyo
10. 10Flood and Ground Risk in Prices: The Discount Becomes Material Above 3 Meters
11. 112040 Station Populations: Stations Still Growing and Their Prices
12. 12Migration Inside the 23 Wards: Net Inflow by Ward and Age
13. 13Investment Outlook for the End of 2026
14. 14Method, Data and Limitations